Trump’s intent is difficult to evaluate with certainty, as his many conflicting statements can be cherrypicked to fit any narrative. I’m not a Trump expert, and only started collecting data this cycle. My original gut reaction was ‘ringer for the Democrats’. That and forty bucks will get you a cup of coffee.
Does Trump have the capability to cause riots in the event he loses the primary or general? Do his supporters?
Recently the usual procedure in America is arranged, and has two requirements. The first is political intervention in the law enforcement whose jurisdiction is the venue. The second is rioters organized around a core of professional and recreation rioters.
I expect other alternatives have not been viable due to perceptions of risk compared to rewards. Even if recent events have made rioting seem more effective, I think Americans still have too great a sense of ‘something left to lose’. I do not know of any high probability scenarios that would be sufficient to change that in the next eight months.
I do not think there is enough time to develop the rioters from scratch. I do not think the hard left would loan Trump rioters or organizers if he would use them against the left or Hillary.
I also doubt Trump has the necessary political pull with state and local politicians. He cannot count on Democrats when running as a Republican. His involvement with the Republican party is probably too recent and narrow for him to have any pull with Republican mayors.
There is a decent chance that Trump cannot follow through with the relevant comments, whether or not he knows that.
Does this mean Trump is not responsible for Chicago? Maybe. However, if Cruz wins the nomination, the left hates him at least as badly, and still does not manage to create such events… It seems plausible that combining a de-escalating mindset with solid intelligence on venue security would allow one to minimize such risks, and that this would be worth advertising to contrast with Trump.
Ending on a related note, Hillary continues to have been a horrible Secretary of State, and to be a horrible candidate for President. I think Trump’s specific negatives make him our best chance of losing to her. I think Cruz would win.