Wrote this maybe a week ago and left it sitting in my notes. I’m a bit embarrassed because I forget to account for the effects of the oppo that I had forecast in the past.
Haven’t been harping on this much here, because I don’t want to get boring, and because by now there is no point in anything but waiting to see if I am right.
I continue to think Trump is pretty certain to lose. (I may have some crow to eat this November. Barring nuclear terrorism, which is the only out I left myself.)
I assume that any appearance he might win is an illusion. There may be some actual movement on fundamentals, but polling sucks this cycle, and the RNC has reason to want to pretend they haven’t abjectly surrendered the field. Plus, media needs ratings, and political tension gives ratings.
Since I haven’t been convinced of any real difference between the two, my desperation to avoid Clinton magnitude foreign policy disasters hasn’t been screwing with my electoral expectations as much. I may be on track for a better November than in 2008 and 2012 in terms of peace of mind.
Perhaps my desire to be correct, and to gloat about it is still enough to cloud my mind and eyes.