On May Third of this year, my conclusion was that the election was essentially over.
The essence of what has happened is as I had foreseen. The low probability events that potentially could have shifted things did not happen.
I really did not want to accept that Clinton would be President #45, and that current foreign policy would be continued, gaining greater momentum towards the looming disaster. Nor any of the other very likely calamities.
I recall being assured that the media had released the worst of the Trump oppo already, and that my insistence that they were saving it for the general was incorrect.
This oppo could have been released during the primary, and was not. Three possibilities: 1) Media had it, but wanted to preserve Trump for the general, where they could best help Hillary. 2) Media had it but, desperate for ratings, they wanted to keep the Trump gaffe gravy train going as long as possible. 3) Republicans had it, but didn’t care to, or weren’t able to use it.
Trump’s novel primary strategy relied on the media, desperate for ratings, giving him an awful lot of free airtime. He seemed to assume this would continue in the general, at the same level of media dropping oppo on him.
Republican politicians who have won more than one election seem to have a sense of things they shouldn’t say, lest the media crucify them for it. They seem convinced that risk-averse strategies are their only option.
There’s been fights brewing in the GOP since the TEA party movement started. The people who took advantage of the TEA movement to gain office wanted power at the expense of those who already had it. Both sides have been jostling for advantage.
There is a calculated reason for a long term Republican elected official to endorse Trump in the primary, when they are sure he will lose the general, then rescind that when bad enough oppo hits in the general. That being pinning Trump on the TEA party. Sure, Trump may make the 2016 election harder, but it may mitigate future risks of primarying. That’s okay for them as long as they don’t mind Clinton winning.
Even if they know they are going to lose, and knew it from the beginning, there are reasons for Trump’s campaign to blame Republican traitors and media skullduggery for the loss.
‘I was unable to complete the exercise because of rain.’
‘The rain in the forecasts you were provided while planning the exercise?’
I reiterate my prediction that, barring nuclear terrorism, Clinton will be #45.
The Muslims do not currently seem up to exploiting our security holes to that degree. Maybe the Russians want to swing the election badly enough? (I doubt it.)
Absent that, I think Trump’s chances are worse than Johnson’s or McMullin’s. I do not think Johnson ever planned a serious GOTV effort either. McMullin most likely started too late. Likely neither has enough time to grow. Hence oppo’s timing.